Rate Forecast
2026.
Don't guess. We track the 5-Year Bond Yield daily to predict Fixed Rate movements before the banks announce them.
3.12%
5-Year Gov Bond Yield
Signal: Bonds are trading lower, suggesting Fixed Rates should drop by 0.10% - 0.15% soon.
-0.90%
Variable Discount (Prime - X)
Signal: Lenders are aggressive. We are seeing discounts as deep as Prime - 1.10% for high-ratio files.
Float then Fix?
Current Recommendation
The spread between Fixed and Variable is narrowing. Short-term variable strategies are risky but offer higher upside if BoC cuts aggressively.
The "Bond Yield" Correlation Explained
Banks don't pick fixed rates out of thin air. They base them on the Government of Canada 5-Year Bond Yield plus a spread (profit margin).
Right now, the Bond Yield is hovering around 3.12%. Typically, banks price 5-year fixed mortgages about 1.50% above this yield. That means "Fair Value" for a fixed mortgage is roughly 4.62%.
However, our exclusive rates are beating this spread because of volume discounts. We are seeing lenders cut into their own margins to win market share.
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